The billionth PC was sold in April, according to Gartner. It also projects that the sale of the next billion PCs will only take 6-7 years more. Considering that there are about 500 million users who can be expected to upgrade once in 3-4 years, Gartners project seems to make sense. Or does it?
Computers have now gotten ahead of what capabilities we need. With processor speeds exceeding 2 Ghz and Moores law still driving a doubling every 18 months, computers are at a point wherein we are using barely a fraction of their power. The Internets protocols and bandwidth has also made server-based computing much more practical. A browser on a PC is now good enough for most people to do all their daily tasks.
What this means is that the existing set of 500 users are unlikely to upgrade their computer more than once in the next 6-7 years. The worlds computer industry is yet to face this impending reality. Yes, a billion PCs can still be sold but this means the industry needs to get 500 million new users. These users are not going to come from the worlds developed markets there, everyone who needs a PC at home or in office already has one. It is countries like India and China which are the new growth markets for the PCs.
But look at Indias statistics from MAIT for the year ended March 2002:
PC sales: 1.67 million (down 11% year-on-year)
Of these: 1.3 million were bought by businesses, of which 47% by SMEs
First-time buyers: 71%
Top 4 metros account for 56% (down from 68%), next 4 for 14% (vs 20%)
Projected PC sales for 2002-03: 1.9 million (up 12%)
Notebooks: 45K, Servers: 51K
Printers 836K, of which: Dotmatrix 345K, Inkjet 428K, Laserjet 61K
Network cards: 1 million, Hubs: 206K, Modems: 470K
All of India (a population of over a billion) bought 1.67 million PCs. This is less than 1.5% of the world PC market. More importantly, PC sales fell compared to the previous year. Is India the future of the worlds PC market? Not with these kind of numbers.