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Ford’s Law for Tech

September 24th, 2002 · No Comments

Writes Lee Gomes (WSJ):

For a while, it seemed as though Moore’s Law applied to PC sales, too. During the height of the Internet boom, annual growth rates were above 25%.

In the real world, however, Ford’s Law is the boss. Ford’s Law, invented here in this column, is named after Henry Ford; it holds that for mature industries, you will be able to count the annual growth rate on one hand.

During the past five years, for example, the domestic demand for cars increased by an average of 2.7% a year. And those were good years. This year, PCs, graying around the temples, will be lucky to beat even the auto industry’s meager average. Goldman Sachs says business spending on technology will rise just 3% or so this year.

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