12-Year Tech Cycles

It struck me that major leaps in computing seem to be happen every 12 years or so. Start with 1945 – the ENIAC. In the late 1950s, IBM switched from using vaccuum tubes to using transistors. In the early 1970s, we had the invention of the microprocessor. In 1982-83, we had the personal computer launched by IBM. In 1994-95, we had the proliferation of the Internet.

So, the next big leap in computing should happen around 2006-7. What will it be? Google as the supercomputer? Longhorn? Cellphones as always-on, always-connected, computers? Utility computing? Wearable computers? Something unseen as of today…?

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