Emergic: Rajesh Jain's Blog

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Technology Hype Cycle

September 6th, 2004 · No Comments

BBC News writes about tech’s roadmap:

On a curve of development, the Hype Cycle tries to predict where technologies are heading: into our pockets and living rooms, or into the Betamax graveyard.

It starts with the “technology trigger”, where a breakthrough or event generates publicity, exposing the gadget or technology to a wider audience.

A “peak of inflation” follows where great things are expected. Inevitably, this leads to the “trough of disillusionment”.

This is not a Middle Earth battle ground; it is where technology goes to wilt when it fails to deliver its promises.

As people start to learn more about the technology, it starts to struggle up the slope of enlightenment. The final stage is the “plateau of productivity” when it becomes mainstream.

The best example is the Apple iPod and the iTunes online store, which triggered an explosive growth in what used to be called “MP3 players”.

Tags: Emerging Technologies

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