Dion Hinchcliffe writes about some of the trends:
– An Increasing Attention Scarcity: There isn’t enough atttention, or users that supply it, to go around. Particuarly there’s just too many channels vying for it or existing channels are still dominate the majority of attention. This will affect the viability of new online entries and force them to create innovative ways to acquire attention.
– Online Social Communities Are A Winning Model – It’s unclear what the monetization is (other than advertising) or the cost of successfully starting one, but many of the fastest growing and most popular places heavily use social software techniques to draw and keep users. And some begunnung are to acquire valuations in the billions. (Some Examples: SecondLife, MySpace, FaceBook.).
– Traditional Software Vendors Will Struggle in a Web 2.0 World – Microsoft and Google will likely figure it out, though it’s not a sure thing either. Microsoft has serious product line baggage and Google has healthy challenges in managing its growth and maintaining a sharp focus on strategy. Google’s latest products don’t seem to have their famous edge, for example. The smaller, nimbler Web 2.0 startups might continue to be a great source of innovation but it might make sense for Google to acquire startups and immedatiely spin it off to avoid the “big company effect.”