Sticky Ideas

Guy Kawasaki interviews Chip and Dan Heath about their new book, “Made to Stick.”

We found there were six principles (SUCCES) that link sticky ideas of all kinds. Sticky ideas wont always have all six, but the more, the merrier.

For example, JFKs idea to put a man on the moon in a decade had all six of them:

1. Simple: A single, clear mission.
2. Unexpected: A man on the moon? It seemed like science fiction at the time.
3. Concrete: Success was defined so clearlyno one could quibble about man, moon, or decade.
4. Credible: This was the President of the U.S. talking.
5. Emotional: It appealed to the aspirations and pioneering instincts of an entire nation.
6. Story: An astronaut overcomes great obstacles to achieve an amazing goal.

2007 Predictions

From Nyquist Capital:

# Google (GOOG) makes a really big move into hardware. This is accomplished by close partnership with Samsung or Sony (SNE) who finally realizes it needs a software partner to sell hardware.

# The Third PC emerges, after the desktop and laptop in many homes, and its in the living room. This drives all sorts of new trends, from a focus on highly integrated chipsets to low power to new software companies.

# China becomes the next investment meme as retail investors pour money into the country. Every company rushes to present their China strategy. Any investment with China attached to it get a premium. The 2008 Beijing Olympics become the must-have ticket for the glitterati.

Online Classifieds

Jeff Jarvis points to PaidContent: “In the past six months, visits to the big three online recruiters, Monster, Yahoos HotJobs, and CareerBuilder dropped by 23.7 percent, 18.4 percent, and 7.1 percent, respectively, Hitwise reports. The reason, BusinessWeek reports, is the rise of social networks and job sites dedicated to matching employers and job seekers in very specific pockets of the job market sites where musicians looking for work on cruise ships, for example.”

Jeff’s comment: “Software, social software, and online functionality are replacing the classified ad. The internet makes connections and ads are supposed to make connections and now they can be made directly.”

Teens have Tools of Cultural Production

Howard Rheingold: “The tools for cultural production and distribution are in the pockets of 14 year olds. This does not guarantee that they will do the hard work of democratic self-governance: the tools that enable the free circulation of information and communication of opinion are necessary but not sufficient for the formation of public opinion. Ask yourself this question: Which kind of population seems more likely to become actively engaged in civic affairs a population of passive consumers, sitting slackjawed in their darkened rooms, soaking in mass-manufactured culture that is broadcast by a few to an audience of many, or a world of creators who might be misinformed or ill-intentioned, but in any case are actively engaged in producing as well as consuming cultural products? Recent polls indicate that a majority of today’s youth the “digital natives” for whom laptops and wireless Internet connections are part of the environment, like electricity and running water have created as well as consumed online content. I think this bodes well for the possibility that they will take the repair of the world into their own hands, instead of turning away from civic issues, or turning to nihilistic destruction.”

Mobile Predictions for 2007

Rafe Blandford of AllAboutSymbian looks ahead:

# We will see more diverged-converged devices. That is to say devices that have a primary task at which they excel, at a design cost to other features. Current examples of this include the Nokia N91 (music) and N93 (video). However such devices will not lose functionality since the majority of functionality is within the software platform and as such they will still be converged devices. This trend is driven by marketing and the need to create products attractive to specific user segments. There will, of course, still be devices that are marketed as ‘do it all’ in the vein of the Nokia N73 or (more sexily) the Nokia N95.

# There will be more devices with integrated GPS, precipitating signs of a renewed emphasis on location-based services and software. Bluetooth-enabled GPS navigation has been one of the most popular add ons for smartphones in 2006 and integration into each device will make this even more attractive to users. Integrated GPS will also add location data to existing functions (e.g. geo-encoded camera pictures).

# The first signs of wider consumption of user generated video will appear. Future Nseries devices will ship with an application that allows you to download and view (video) content from sites such as YouTube and Google Video. There may even be software to allow direct uploading to the same sites, contributing smartphone-shot video clips without needing a PC to host them first.

TECH TALK: 2007 Tech Trends: 5. Video Proliferation

2007 will continue to see dramatic growth in video content on the Internet. YouTube was about the short clips either taken from existing sources or created by users. We are now already starting to see mainstream media make available longer videos from TV shows to movies. The Venice Project from the Skype founders is about breaking geographical barriers for television. So, expect a lot more video to be flowing around on the Internet.

Fred Wilson wrote:

A ton of content that used to be watched in the family room is going to be watched on other devices.

What are those devices? Desktop and laptop PCs, xBox and other game devices, PSP and other portables (maybe even smartphones). It’s exploding TV time and 2007 is going to be a breakout year.

In addition to iTunes/iTV, we are going to see The Venice Project come to fruition in 2007. It will start on Windows PCs, but I hope and expect to see a Venice client for Mac, xBox, and PSP before year end. For those of you who don’t know, The Venice Project is the next thing the guys who did Kazaa and Skype are doing. First it was music, then telcom, now TV and Film.

And you cannot underestimate the power of web video (YouTube, Google Video, etc, etc). I would expect to see a number of these players adopt a client like The Venice Project and also a p2p backbone, and offer the content that is building on their networks in downloadable formats. I also expect more and more people to connect a web browser to their family room systems and start watching web video sitting around after dinner.

This is from a GigaOm post in December:

Cisco CEO John Chamberssaid that if there is a killer app, it is video, as part of his keynote speech kicking off the Cisco C-Scape analysts conference.

Things like YouTube are just the baby steps of the impact video will have on networks, said Chambers, who has already introduced the companys new big-vision theme (The Human Network) and the technology vision that supports it (Network as the Platform.)

Video is also being adopted by businesses. Cisco is betting big on its telepresence line of products. Whether it is for product demos or for real-time conferencing, video on the Internet is set to be an integral part of our lives.

On the consumer side, the next big challenge is monetisation. Pre-roll and post-roll ads are only the start. This year, we will start to see significant innovation in video advertising. Unlike text, serving video is not cheap so video sites have to think quickly on how to convert eyeballs to money. Video can provide for many creative ideas for advertising that we have heard of in the past for example, one can click on an object and be taken to the vendor to buy it. Contextual advertising acquires a whole new meaning in the world of video.

Next Week: 2007 Tech Trends (continued)

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