Month: December 2008

The Mumbai Terror attacks and the inadequacy (and at times, sheer stupidity) of the politicians we have elected to power contrasts dramatically with the team that is now taking charge of America under Obama. Here are some of my writings on this theme:

• Reinventing Indian Politics: how mobiles will create an opportunity for an Indian Obama in the years to come
• Who will be India’s Obama?
• India needs Ratan Tata as Prime Minister for 5 Years: this post got over 65 comments, the most any post has ever received

The terror attacks in November happened just a few kilometres from home in South Mumbai where I live. I wrote three posts about the attacks:

• Terror in Mumbai (on Nov 27)
• Mumbai: What Now? (On Nov 28)
• Mumbai: Why This Time is Different (on Dec 1)

A few of my better posts which entrepreneurs may like:

• C2 R2: on the need to cut costs and ramp-up revenues in difficult times
• Watch the Cashflow: one way to prevent business failure
• What can Cause Us to Fail: think multi-monetisation
• Crucible Moments: those which  transform us, and shake and shape our lives
• Talking to People about One’s Business: openness can only help you
• Ambition for a Start-up: how much should you have
• Don’ts of Public Speaking on Panels: suggestions for the next time you are on a panel or a moderator
• Meetings with Customers: get out of office
• Why Founders / CEOs should Blog Daily: all it takes is 15 minutes a day

It is now called Software-as-a-Service and the more fashionable Cloud Computing. Back then, we called it Application Service Provider. I wrote this series in May 2005:

Even as globally ASPs are making a comeback and software-as-a-service seems likely to define at least a part of the industry, in emerging markets, the opportunity for both SMEs in Emerging Markets (SMEEMs) and the ASPs is significant. This is because of the lack of legacy infrastructure – enterprises have simply not invested adequately in IT over the past decade because of issues like affordability (dollar-denominated pricing), desirability (lack of relevant applications) and manageability (not enough skills to manage technology). Now, with the ASP model, all of this can change. As businesses realise that they have to automate for growth, software vendors have an opportunity to fulfill this market need.

In fact, I believe that from the perspective of emerging markets, the ASP model of software-as-a-service is a disruptive innovation. The competition, for the most part, is non-consumption, as SMEEMs use only limited software for their business. The need in these markets is for ASPs and SME Tech Utilities. ASPs build the back-end and SME Tech Utilities provide the whole solution to the customer (thin clients, LAN-Grid, broadband connectivity, and perhaps, consulting to ensure that they can make appropriate use of the software).

One way to accelerate the process would be to build Tech 7-11s in business neighbourhoods. These multi-purpose Tech 7-11s can be the last mile bridge between the ASPs and the SMEEMs. In emerging markets, businesses will need greater hand-holding as they automate their businesses – and this is where the Tech 7-11s can play a starring role. In addition, their physical presence will also reassure customers wary of dealing with faceless service providers.

This weekend’s links:

• Cringely’s 2009 Predictions: His last column for PBS.
• Mobile’s Tectonic Shift: by Cyriac Roeding of Kleiner Perkins
• Time to Reboot America: Tom Friedman’s article on what the US needs – also applicable in parts to India
• Rethinking Computers in the Classroom: from Business Week. “What’s needed, say educators and technology advocates, is a 21st-century curriculum that harnesses PCs and the Internet to equip kids with skills needed in the modern workplace, like critical thinking, analysis, and communications.”
• Venture Capital’s Coming Collapse: from Forbes. “The venture capital industry is staring at the most vicious shakeout in its history. Returns are pathetic for most funds, the public offering pipeline on which venture depends for its exit strategy is clamped shut, and with the shares of many big publicly traded tech companies swooning, those firms are less likely to buy up promising upstarts.”

It is the last week of 2008, and time for some re-runs. I re-started this as a daily blog in August, so there’s only five months of material to choose from – and it may seem quite recent. Here goes — a selection of what I think were some of the better blog posts that I wrote. I have categorised the blog posts into six themes: Mobile Value-Added Services and Data, Entrepreneurship, the Mumbai Terror Attacks, Reinventing Indian Politics, my Presentations, and a few Personal commentaries. Happy Holidays. I’ll be back with new posts starting Monday, January 5.

• India’s MVAS Industry Stats and Analysis: Breaking down the numbers that make up the billion-dollar consumer spend
• Next Mobile Opportunities: Why I believe SMS Subscriptions will be to the Mobile what the Search Box has been to the Internet
• From SMS Subscriptions to VAS Operator, and from VAS Operator to Mobile Computing Operator: how to build the next business models in the mobile data space
• Growing Mobile Data and VAS in India: the five things that are needed
• Why India needs VAS Operator (Light) Licencing: the way to grow off-deck VAS services in India
• 2009 India Mobility Trends: what to look forward

To show the huge gap that exists between China and India on the Internet front, here are the latest numbers put out by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology:

• 290 million, as of end November
• This is up 37 million in 5 months
• 80% connect via broadband connections, of which half are over ADSL

India has about 55-60 million Internet users (and not the 80 million that some government stats would have us believe). Most of the consumer access is on 256 Kbps or less. We have a long way to go. And sadly, even as we think about 3G and all that in India, no one is really pushing building out India’s broadband infrastructure for mass-market consumer Internet growth.

Last week, during my visit to Surat, we visited a Jain temple in Miyaganj Karjan, about 100 kms. from Surat. We went by train – the journey took 1 hour 45 mins. On our return, we decided to take the bus since the next train meant waiting for 2 hours. In the end, it didn’t make much of a difference! Due to the construction going on (widening of NH8 to 6 lanes from 4), it took us 3 hours 15 mins to traverse the 100 km.

There was plenty of traffic, but the road itself posed a big challenge for the driver – zig-zagging in and out of the construction patches. We also saw more than a handful of accidents en route. I am sure there is a better way to enhance the road travel experience even as the construction is on. And all this on Nh8 — one of India’s premier national highways.

9. Emergence of Mobile as a Mass and Targeted Medium: Today, the Mobile is one of four new media that ad agencies and business look at along with FM, Out-of-home and the Internet. Given the user base that is already there, the mobile is ready for breaking out of the pack. It has the attributes of a mass medium like TV and print, and can combine the targeting that the Internet offers.

10. The 2009 Elections will be an inflection point for Mobile usage: More than half of the voting Indian population will have a mobile – which is a two-way interactive device. As the Mumbai attacks showed, while TV can rouse passion, it is the mobile which gets people organised and working towards common goals. Just as the US elections of 2008 were a defining moment in the use of Internet and mobile, I believe that the 2009 general elections in India will drive innovation in how the mobile is used for building communities, citizen journalism, advertising and more.

7. Mobile Payments and Commerce will come into vogue: This will happen via three mechanisms. First, the mobile cash balance with an operators could be used for payments. Second, a credit card or debit card could be linked with a mobile phone or number, enabling only an instruction to be issued for making payments. Finally, independent companies could encourage the creation of cash balances to be used for off-deck services. Taken together, the mobile has the potential to emerge at the centre of micropayments.

8. Companies will start creating their Mobile Presence: A mobile presence is much more than setting up a Keyword on a shortcode for lead-generation. Early Adopters will start integrating the mobile (especially SMS and the mobile Internet) into each of their business processes. They will use permission-based channels (rather than spam) to build deeper customer relationships and drive greater engagement.