I wrote this in 2005: “Disruptions are technological shifts which provide opportunity for newcomers to take on incumbents – and perhaps usurp power. It happens all the time. Today’s king is not guaranteed to be tomorrow’s emperor – we have seen this in history and politics, and we see it in business also. While at times, corporations themselves hasten their downfall by questionable decisions (in retrospect), at other times entrepreneurial start-ups with some luck rapidly make their way to the top. There is no magic formula for success. But understanding disruptions and key trends can help avoid mistakes that can accelerate failure.”
I strongly believe that we in India have an opportunity to build the next Black Swan, a company that in 3-5 years can be as important as Google is being seen today. Keeping a perspective of the future world that we want to create is necessary so that we make the right decisions as we work towards building it.
The three key building blocks for my thinking about the future are broadband, mobility and emerging markets. Broadband will enable on-demand, net-native services. Mobility will empower users with computers in their pockets. Much of this future will begin and spread faster in emerging markets because they have very little legacy.