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BJP’s Project 275 for 2014 – Part 2

June 2nd, 2011 · 4 Comments

If we take the argument further, we need to look at two facts.

  • First, if one actually analyses the BJP’s Lok Sabha performance through the years (and a similar analysis can be done for the Congress), it will be seen that the party has won at least once in about 300 of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies.
  • Second, the BJP is in power directly or with an ally in 9 states which account for 170 seats. The party is competitive in states with 219 seats, and almost absent in states with 154 seats. Thus, for the BJP, the pool of seats where it has any chance of winning is about 389 (170+219), with about 55-60 seats going to its three current allies (JD-U in Bihar, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Akali Dal in Punjab). That leaves the BJP competing to win in about 330 seats.

States in which the BJP can get allies are states where the BJP has little or no presence. Thus, there is little benefit for a party to ally with the BJP prior to the election. In fact, the perception has been created that an alliance with the BJP may cost the ally votes from specific communities.

The BJP’s best bet is to focus on these 330 seats and aim to win 225-250-275 of them. With the three present allies (JD-U in Bihar, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, Akali Dal in Punjab, they must aim to reach the half-way mark of 272 on their own. Only then can they deliver the governance and development to the country that they have been doing at the states. The BJP needs to stop worrying about trying to get new allies because none will come, and even if they do, there is no guarantee they will stay after the elections. These fair weather allies will partner only with that party which helps them get power.

Continued tomorrow.

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4 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Varang // Jun 2, 2011 at 6:47 am

    Sir,

    Great to see some hard data around this. However I would like to point a few thingse basically out of reach.

    – Some of the seats BJP won in the Past are basically out of reach. For many reasons, like delimitation and non-existence of the Hindu wave of the 90s. So it reduces true number of seats that are truly “in play” for the BJP

    – Given such serious geographical Limitation, IMHO, BJP has two paths For 2014

    1. Regains it’s formal glory in UP
    Or
    2. Build a credible non-congress coalition in Maharashtra and Andhra. This might involve talking to ppl like Raj Thackeray and Jagan Mohan Reddy

  • 2 Manoj Agarwal // Jun 2, 2011 at 9:03 am

    Dear Rajesh,

    Allow me a little critique of your analysis. Your analysis is too simplistic. For instance, I believe you must have counted UP as a state were BJP has its presence. However, if we look at realistically, BJP has no more than 20 seats in UP where it is in fight. Hence we can not add all 80 seats to BJP’s figure where it has a chance. Similarly I don’t know where have you added Haryana but barring 1 or 2 seats BJP is totally absent there.
    Let me give you one example. The BJP today is crying hoarse(or may be gloating naively) that they are the one who originally raised the black money issue. They might be happy that now the issue is getting traction or they might be feeling sidelined. In either case, they are not the one who are getting any credit for it. Reason? Reason is simple. BJP leaders today think that sitting here in Delhi darbar, they will come to the power by default. Look at Baba Ramdev. The guy has impressive figures to tout. 100,000 KM of travel all over country. Which BJP leader has taken such an arduous journey to high light this issue. As far as this issue is concerned, I had wrote in one of my earlier mails to you, right after 2009 defeat, that BJP should take this issue to its logical conclusion otherwise it would look just another poll gimmick. Just imagine, had there been another LK Advani (it had to be another, not the original) going all over the country, traveling, creating awareness about black money for last 2 years, how much political mileage BJP would have gotten in today’s political environment? It would be enormous. Now, the sad reality is that BJP is also paying the price of Congress’s sin and is at the receiving end of “All politicians are chor”. They may gloat at the momentary discomfort of Congress but the fact is BJP is not going to be benefited from all of this. They have to hit the road. They have to reclaim their turf which has been hijacked by all and sundry be it Babas or civil society. It’s the task of herculean proposition. One can not hope to win the crown of India sitting in drawing rooms.

  • 3 Satyam Bachani // Jun 2, 2011 at 11:57 am

    Dear Manoj,

    The way I look at it is that Baba is a front for the RSS, hes maybe even being financed and given logistical support by them.

    BJP and the RSS right from the start of time have shouted the issue of Black money but of-course I agree not much had been done after saying a lot of things.

    Thanks to him now all of a sudden RSS has got a platform to get themselves mainstream again, once the movement starts you’d see a lot of BJP in Baba and he talking their language!

    There is little that can go wrong here in this strategy even if Baba defracts its okay as it gives BJP/RSS to get the mainstream attention that it needs.

    As a party they cannot go around the country as the media would kill them calling them taking political advantage.

    Should be a lot of fun post the 6th too once the civil committee walks out after the JLP meet.

    Regards,

    Satyam Bachani.

  • 4 Mukesh // Sep 22, 2011 at 9:56 am

    My assessment says that BJP with current allies will touch near 248 then they have to find new partners to reach to 273 mark.
    BJP need to work hard to get into UP/Maharashtra/Andhra

    CONG+ BJP+
    211 248

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