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Blog Past: BJP’s Project 275 for 2014

June 17th, 2012 · 6 Comments

I wrote this series a year ago:

1.     For the BJP to form a govt at the Centre, it needs to focus winning not just 175 but 275 seats (or 225 + 45 with the three current NDA llies). Winning 275 needs a dramatically different strategy from trying to win 175. To get to 275 seats out of 350-odd seats, the BJP needs to ensure a “wave” election with a 75% hit rate. That needs to be focus of future efforts. A summation of state elections will only get us to 175-odd, and if the Congress manages 150, BJP will not be able to form the government.

2.     A wave election last happened in India in 1984. BJP’s approach needs to be to work towards creating a wave in 2014 - across the country, and especially in the 330-350 seats where the BJP is competitive. No one, as far as I can tell, is thinking of what it takes to create a wave. 2014 may still be three years ago, but a lot of groundwork will need to be done to make this happen.

3.     Switch focus from maximising allies to maximising seats for 2014. All strategy needs to be focused on this.

I think various factors are coming together to create the foundation of a possible wave election in 2014. For one, look at the 90% hit rates that have happened in places in Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. (Assam came quite close.) The same concerns and issues have resonated across a state. I believe that something similar can happen nationally in 2014.

Based on the above, the BJP’s focus needs to be to maximise seats and hit rate, and not maximise pre-poll allies.

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6 responses so far ↓

  • 1 GOOGBLE // Jun 18, 2012 at 1:40 am

    For the BJP to form a govt at the Centre, it needs to focus winning not just 175 but 275 seats (or 225 + 45 with the three current NDA llies).

    WISHFUL THINKING?

    That there are dark clouds on the Congress Horizon seems a given, given the current state of affairs. But that it automatically translates to a BJP votebank is wishful thinking at its best.

    The best that can be said is that there is space for a dark horse, as evinced by the self-congratulatory interest shown by people in the
    Anna and Ramdev campaigns. For some time, almost every one in the country was a politically aware citizen, nay a politician with a say in how the country should be governed.

    Whoever can channel this intrinsic awareness and growing dissatisfaction with the present state of affairs is bound to be a winner.

    As to who can be ruled out as cause for such political revolution is well known, the BJP is part of that set.

    This seems a period of the great unknowns, and it seems that the unknowns also do not know that.

  • 2 Asit // Jun 24, 2012 at 8:05 pm

    Basically the BJP should prove by its performance, like Gujarat.. In all other states, where BJP has governments, they should perform well for the next few years (like Narendra Modi)…this will ensure confidence in people..
    Also the potential candidates for each constituency should start working at the grass root level to solve problems in their capacity and connect with the people…this will create a different wave in the next election…

  • 3 GOOGBLE // Jun 28, 2012 at 8:56 pm

    Asit,

    Only if it gets to govern, only if, and what a big if it is.

    As of now, the writing on the wall is clear. Congress to go, home.

    As to who will occupy the halls of future governance, is still wide open, it is even possible that Jayalalitha becomes PM, with BJP outside4 support, and then….

    Unless she is invalidated by a stroke or something, the BJP’s ass is going to hurt from the lashing she will give them.

    Catch 22 or Congress. Hmmm.

  • 4 Abhishek // Jun 29, 2012 at 2:31 pm

    For BJP to even think of winning they have to be clear as to what they want and what they could do for the country. If they are confused as to whom to project them as their leader for 2014, people may not vote for them. Projecting Narendra Modi or Arun jaitley or Sushma Swaraj, may disgruntle a few old stalwarts but at the same time would let people know that BJP has moved on with time and is ready to give command to a relatively younger leader who could take the country ahead. If they get cofused and subdued by their allies, then their chances would be bleak.

    Abhishek
    http://simplifyingmoney.blogspot.com

  • 5 Puja // Jul 3, 2013 at 12:23 pm

    Cannot happen till BJP resolves internal strife and declares a National Leader. Karnataka where they ruled was a disaster. People are fed up with the congress, but BJP is hardly an alternate. Atleast not till they put their own house in order.

  • 6 Typhoid Mary // Jul 5, 2013 at 1:35 pm

    First & foremost, it’s high time that the pack of job’s comforters/self-centred /self-slaughtering within the BJP (Advani) be given the gate. Thereafter, the arm-chair, inconsequential, yesterday’s news, spent forces of the party of the ilk of Yaswant, Jaswant, Monohar Joshi, Uma Bharti….. be euthanized if they don’t desist shooting their reeking mouths off. Third, all ought to sink their personal egos in the larger interest. Fourth, Modi ought not to be apologetic for his deeds irregardless of the temptation/trap laid by the litter-ral, sick-ular jaundiced media so as to disenchant his all-weather pursuivants. Fifth, as a cadre-based party, it won’t be a daunting task for BJP to induct/infuse young blood in states like TN/Bengal/Andhra which account for>100 LS seats as the party just can’t afford to draw a blank in this 3 states .

    Apropos of nothing, BJP ought to focus on/attack Khan-gress’ anti-people policies- wanton corruptions, botching-up in the financial sector, inflation, unprecedented price hike…. notwithstanding khna-gress’ desperate attempt to deflect/divert people’s ephemeral heed/memory towards kaum-munalism for political dividends.

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