Prediction Markets

Dan Farber writes:

[James] Surowiecki started off by outlining the challenges of bringing collective intelligence/wisdom of crowd into corporate environments. He is clearly an advocate for prediction markets, extracting wisdom from crowd behavior.

The success of prediction markets will show that real knowledge is within the organization as a whole and employees have a lot to say about what the future looks like, Surowiecki said.

Prediction markets are not like public opinion polls, in which people vote for who they want to win. The mechanisms for prediction markets are more like the stock market, with knowledgeable people betting on the most likely outcome of an event.

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