The New Normal (Roger McNamee) writes:
Even if the real time model of broadcast and cable remains impractical on the internet for a number of years, that shouldnt prevent the internet from becoming a new distribution system for video content. The internet has features which compensate for its limitations, making new models practical today. For example, the internet has the most flexible of network architectures. It also has huge amounts of storage and processing power, both at the core and the edge. And the software platform of the internet is mature, and can easily be modified to meet the needs of consumer video. Best of all, the cost of experimentation is negligible in comparison to alternative broadband architectures, such as cable and satellite. The experiments that interest me are those that leverage these strengths. Imagine a store and forward model analogous to email. Imagine variants of TiVO, without the arbitary limits. Imagine business models that leverage the intelligence of computer technology, enabling personalization not only of programming, but also of business models, including advertising.
One of my favorite things about the internet is the long tail. Thanks to cheap storage and a flexible architecture, the internet removes many limitations of physical distribution…I would expect the current distributors of video content – including the major cable operators, broadcast networks, and studios – to be players in internet video, but I will be surprised if they dominate it. Content owners – particularly the owners of the legacy content that forms the long tail – have an incentive to support competitors to the duopoly model of cable and satellite.