This is what Fred Wilson had to say on the emerging future as he was making his way to the Web 2.0 conference:
One of the central tenets of Web 2.0 thinking is that lightweight “point solutions” that can be stitched together by the consumer are preferable to end to end solutions that are stitched together by the service provider.
I had a conversation with veteran web entrepreneur who challenged that assumption yesterday.
His view, one that I have to admit made me sit back and think, is that the early adopters (geeks) of the web 2.0 world prefer to stitch together point solutions, but that the mainstream web user will prefer an end to end solution.
Further, his view is that the leading portals; Google (I know they aren’t a portal, they are a starbucks store), Yahoo!, MSN, AOL, IAC, etc will stitch together end to end solutions with a combined build and buy strategy.
And it follows from this analysis, that the portals will end up winning the masses and leaving the point solutions either as assets to be purchased or to waste away and die.
Richard MacManus wrote:
Mary Meeker called where we’re at now a “boom-let”. We’ve gone from boom to bust to boom-let (presumably a precursor to the next boom). She thinks the first 10 years of Web were just the warm-up act for what will happen next. She’s particularly bullish on mobile technologies, which definitely haven’t matured yet. Mary mentioned in her speech here at the conference that 2009 would be the year of 3G.
Susan Mernit thinks the upcoming.org sale to Yahoo! marks the beginning of a boom. She sees the recent acquisitions of Google and Yahoo! as a sign they’re building “the base tool set/platform for a consumer-driven Web 2.0.” I agree with that and it shows the Web 2.0 ‘space’ is heating up big time. But does that make it a bubble yet, or will it take more mature broadband and mobile technologies to push it into a market-driven frenzy?
Richard had more to say about Mary Meekers talk:
“Korea is goto place to figure out where the Internet is going”
Innovation coming out of China – 5,6,7 yrs time
we’re at “boom-let” stage now (after boom and bust)
market valuations of top 5 companies huge (google, yahoo, ebay, yahoo japan, amazon), compared to 2000.
entering 2 most profound cycles ever: PC Internet (broadband) –> Mobile Internet
3G won’t hit big until 2009
3.6-1 mobile phone to internet user ratio in Japan (0.8-1 in US). The point is “we’re [US] not leading in this space”]
87% Skype usage is outside North America
70% revenue from mobile comes from sms and mms. Content will be revenue earner on bb Internet. So when mobile and bb collide, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
LOTS of data in this talk!
“essence of this presentation is how important communications is” and convergence of bb and mobile etc.
Mobile-PC becoming new client-server model?
Tomorrow: Conference Highlights (continued)
TECH TALK Web 2.0+T