Dan Farber writes about a talk given by Cassatt’s Bill Coleman:
Last week, Coleman gave a presentation of the Vortex 2005 conference in San Francisco, predicting that the next generation of consolidation will result in the end of every telco, cable, ISV and portal company. It will morph into something else, with all companies buying capacity on demand. Utility computing will eliminate operating expense costs and rely on the using the cheapest components to build large scale systems, he added.
In other words, the Internet will be the hub for all content and communications (VoIP, IPTV, etc.), computing components will be standardized and cheap, and new utilities will spring up just as Yahoo, Google, Amazon and eBay have sprouted in the last decade. The existing infrastructure companies either morph into the new era or disappear.
This transformation will be similar to what has gone on in the cellular communications industry, a battleground increasingly fewer border constraints (the Internet), and the economics, and history, dictate that only a handful of suppliers will be left standing over the next decade or two.