Tony Perkins writes:
Back in the mid-90s — when it was just beginning to become clear to industry insiders and VCs that the commercialization of the Internet was going to be a really big deals — you had no customer base; unreliable, slow, and expensive technology; and only a vague idea as to which business models were going to win or lose. In other words, anyone who wanted to build a successful Internet brand at that stage had to raise a lot of moolah early in the cycle, before the investors blew out in 2000. In retrospect, most of the big Internet brands that came out of “Web 1.0” did raise big bucks, including Amazon, Yahoo, CNet, eBay, and VeriSign.
As you follow the Perkins Curve down, what I am trying to make clear is that the period from 2002 to 2010 is the best time to start an Internet company. Why? One reason is because we now have over a billion people on the Internet, and this number is still growing. You also have cheap technologylast time I looked, PHP and MySQL were still free!and a whole generation of geeks trained, ready, and willing to build you a kick-ass Web service, also for very cheap (especially if you go to India or China for development). According to the Perkins Curve, it is starting to get expensive again to start an Internet company, largely because all the hot business models and new sector opportunities are quickly getting filled, and it will become increasingly expensive to compete as a follower. That is why the time to make the jump is now.