Robert Cringely writes why Microsoft will win:
Those who are trying to figure out if Vista will be successful haven’t yet grasped the concept that Vista will be forced on the market, and in time it will be the only operating system you can buy from Microsoft. Of course it will be successful. Will people upgrade their existing systems? Of course not. Microsoft operating systems are always designed for future PC’s, not for the installed base. Part of the plan is to make Vista work poorly on current computers so we’ll all have to buy new ones. This strategy has been around for years and there is no reason to believe we won’t fall for it again. Sure, some percentage of people and firms will upgrade, but most of the upgrades will come with whole new computers.
Think back to the Windows 95 introduction, where one of the selling points was that the new OS would work fine on a 66 MHz 486 computer. The truth was that it would RUN on a 486, but not well, so after a try of Win95 on our old hardware, rather than go to some other operating system we all bought new machines. And we’ll do that again with Vista.