What the BJP needs to propose to its allies and potential partners is a two-pronged electoral model where BJP contests seats in urban areas in states even where the alliance partner is strong. For the alliance partner to agree to such a proposal, there must be a visible national wave for the BJP so that … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 10
Besides the obvious elements that the BJP needs (mass leader and an aspirational agenda, to start with), I think that the BJP also needs to craft a new political model keeping in mind the federal structure of India. The existing approach that the BJP has will probably limit it to a maximum of 200 seats … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 9
India’s political future, thus, has four possibilities after the next elections: A Congress- or BJP-led majority government: this is the ideal scenario A Congress-or BJP-led minority government: the stability of this government will be dependent on the quantum of support needed from the smaller parties A Third Front government: this will be inherently unstable given … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 8
Regional parties rule many states in India already. Each one has the potential to win 20-30 seats in a national election. Since many of them do not have a footprint in more than one state, in theory, they could all come together and try and cobble a government after the next elections if the Congress … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 7
As one looks ahead, India’s political and policy future does not look bright. On the policy side, government interference in business is increasing. The ban on cotton exports is one example of where the government is needlessly meddling with the markets. With a budget coming later this week, socialistic handouts are expected to increase under … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 6
Looking ahead, the future appears bleak for reforms and governance in India. And the first casualty is likely to the Budget. With UPA’s fate now in the hands of the smaller parties, there is little hope for any big bang policies. What should have been done 2.5 years ago when the UPA come to power … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 5
The results have been a mixed bag for the BJP. Goa was a great win, and full credit goes to Manohar Parrikar. He combined his good governance image with smart candidate selection and an alliance that helped propel the BJP to power with a majority. He should now be able to govern for a full … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 4
The so-called “semi-finals” have yielded some fascinating results. Once again, the people of Uttar Pradesh have given a decisive mandate to one party even though there were four in the fray. Hopefully, the SP will focus on development and good governance, and fulfill the aspirations of the people. It won’t be easy, given their past … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 3
In between the Assembly Elections, we had the municipal corporation elections in Mumbai. Shiv Sena-BJP retained power. The voting percentages were still low (sub-50%), though they have been subsequently revised upwards because of errors in voter rolls. I think it is time we look seriously at e-voting and m-voting in India. The mobile number is … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 2
With a closely contested set of elections in five states, the results are eagerly awaited tomorrow. The fortunes and futures of many are at stake. Plenty of exit polls and surveys have been shown all around with results all over the place. So, one is none the wiser. The one positive development this time around … Continue reading Assembly Elections – Part 1
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