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Verdict 2011: The BJP’s Path to 2014

May 20th, 2011 · 7 Comments

Let us start with two facts. First, if one actually analyses the BJP’s Lok Sabha performance through the years (and a similar analysis can be done for the Congress), it will be seen that the party has won at least once in about 300 of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies.

Second, the BJP is in power directly or with an ally in 9 states which account for 170 seats. The party is competitive in states with 219 seats, and almost absent in states with 154 seats. Thus, for the BJP, the pool of seats where it can hope to win is about 389 (170+219), with about 55-60 seats going to its three current allies (JD-U in Bihar, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Akali Dal in Punjab). That leaves the BJP competing to win in about 330 seats.

States in which the BJP can get allies are states where the BJP has little or no presence. Thus, there is little benefit for a party to ally with the BJP prior to the election. In fact, the perception has been created that an alliance with the BJP may cost the ally votes from specific communities.

So, the BJP’s best bet is to focus on these 330 seats and aim to win 225-250 of them. With the three present allies, they must aim to reach the half-way mark of 272 on their own. Only then can they deliver the governance and development to the country that they have been doing at the states.

For this, the BJP does not need a leader who can win more allies. In fact, according to me, it needs no more allies because none will come. On the contrary, the BJP needs a national leader who can help the party win the maximum number of seats in the ones they contest.

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7 responses so far ↓

  • 1 DS // May 20, 2011 at 8:56 am

    “Only then can they deliver the governance and development to the country that they have been doing at the states.”

    Have seen the state of affair in Karnataka? They have messed up a golden opportunity they had here.

  • 2 AD // May 20, 2011 at 9:23 am

    Excellent analysis Rajesh.

    “On the contrary, the BJP needs a national leader who can help the party win the maximum number of seats in the ones they contest.”

    That makes the choice clear – Narendra Modi, so if the other Delhi contenders are made to realise this and the party fully supports Modi this will really rejuvenate the party workers and voters

  • 3 Kiran // May 20, 2011 at 9:26 am

    Hello sir,

    I agree with with you. Modi is the only choice.
    A war can be won in two ways

    1. On your strength
    2. Your strength + opposition weakness

    In any case your strength is important. For some reason BJP has been ignoring this fact. Allies will automatically come as you get strengthened.

    One of the BJP strength in recent times is projecting leader before elections and this is the right time to project Modi bhai

  • 4 Unbiased // May 20, 2011 at 11:42 am

    Although Modi is the right candidate for the prime minister job, I think BJP will not pick him as there will be a lot of protest from minorities. So, the question is whether BJP has a good leader for prime minister job or not? I think Sushma Swaraj will be a better candidate.

  • 5 StatSpotting // May 20, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    This is a classic flaw in thought exercises, very close to ludic fallacy.

    http://statspotting.com/category/ludic-fallacy/

    For the scenario yo have depicted to play out, there must be a complete wave in favour of the BJP., much stronger than the one we saw for the UPA. I am not saying thats impossible – I am only saying it is naive political calculation to expect that to happen. thats the reason “lets go for it alone” will not work in national politics.

    The best any national party can hope for, in current scenario, is to identify capable allies. it works that way. bcos when the fight is big, local wins, all the time. look at what happened in TN. Or actually, for that matter, Kerala.

  • 6 manoj // May 21, 2011 at 7:15 pm

    I wonder how come BJP let other non political people take the vital issues to public? The way UPA is performing, it could have been a huge benefit for BJP… but it seems they are still figuring out who should lead them… They have become a master case in how to loose opportunities… Whether Modi or Sushma, they must declare it openly NOW… deal with the internal dissent within next few months and then go full blast for 2014….. But sadly, they are just postponing the tough decision and in the process giving Sonia-Raul another 5 yrs…

  • 7 Krishnendu // Jun 1, 2011 at 1:49 pm

    A very good perspective. But do the present bjp leaders have such a vision. BJP needs to urgently concentrate on Andhra Pradesh and Orissa which can provide new expanding terrain.

    Also, I am not too sure about this 330 figure considering that BJP has lost a lot of ground in big states like UP and to some extent in Jharkhand. Anyway hope central leaders are working very hard and we do not end up with a performance as in Assam.

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