Emergic: Rajesh Jain's Blog

We have finally begun this project that I had written about a year ago: I was looking for data on past Indian elections – Lok Sabha and Assembly elections over the past 10 years. One obvious source is of course the Election Commission site but what they have is mostly PDFs and some XLS files [...]

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What the BJP needs to propose to its allies and potential partners is a two-pronged electoral model where BJP contests seats in urban areas in states even where the alliance partner is strong. For the alliance partner to agree to such a proposal, there must be a visible national wave for the BJP so that [...]

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Besides the obvious elements that the BJP needs (mass leader and an aspirational agenda, to start with), I think that the BJP also needs to craft a new political model keeping in mind the federal structure of India. The existing approach that the BJP has will probably limit it to a maximum of 200 seats [...]

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India’s political future, thus, has four possibilities after the next elections: A Congress- or BJP-led majority government: this is the ideal scenario A Congress-or BJP-led minority government: the stability of this government will be dependent on the quantum of support needed from the smaller parties A Third Front government: this will be inherently unstable given [...]

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Regional parties rule many states in India already. Each one has the potential to win 20-30 seats in a national election. Since many of them do not have a footprint in more than one state, in theory, they could all come together and try and cobble a government after the next elections if the Congress [...]

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As one looks ahead, India’s political and policy future does not look bright. On the policy side, government interference in business is increasing. The ban on cotton exports is one example of where the government is needlessly meddling with the markets. With a budget coming later this week, socialistic handouts are expected to increase under [...]

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The so-called “semi-finals” have yielded some fascinating results. Once again, the people of Uttar Pradesh have given a decisive mandate to one party even though there were four in the fray. Hopefully, the SP will focus on development and good governance, and fulfill the aspirations of the people. It won’t be easy, given their past [...]

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In between the Assembly Elections, we had the municipal corporation elections in Mumbai. Shiv Sena-BJP retained power. The voting percentages were still low (sub-50%), though they have been subsequently revised upwards because of errors in voter rolls. I think it is time we look seriously at e-voting and m-voting in India. The mobile number is [...]

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With a closely contested set of elections in five states, the results are eagerly awaited tomorrow. The fortunes and futures of many are at stake. Plenty of exit polls and surveys have been shown all around with results all over the place. So, one is none the wiser. The one positive development this time around [...]

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I was looking for data on past Indian elections – Lok Sabha and Assembly elections over the past 10 years. One obvious source is of course the Election Commission site but what they have is mostly PDFs and some XLS files (could not find XLS files for 2009-2011 Assembly elections). I am looking for the [...]

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Much of the narrative that I have read post these Assembly elections is that the national parties (Congress and BJP) need to factor in coalition politics as the way forward since none of them are strong across the country. The Lok Sabha elections will be but an aggregation of the state electoral math – as [...]

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The opportunity to amass phenomenal wealth that political power affords is the main driver for people with neither aptitude nor desire for governing to go to enormous lengths to enter politics. Over time, this leads to the erosion of public morality and ethics. The results of the recent assembly elections in Bihar illustrate this reality. In [...]

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When I opened the morning paper recently, I read about the price of an MLA – Rs 25 crore. I was not that surprised. It has often been mentioned that the price of an MP was about Rs 200 crore. Given that there are about 7 assembly constituents in a Lok Sabha constituency, the maths [...]

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Two Friends for Life: School gave me two friends who are with me even today. Even though we are all in different parts of the world (Narendra in California, Anand in New Jersey, and me in Mumbai), the strong bond of friendship created in school endures as strongly even today. Our happiest moment together was [...]

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Every crisis presents an opportunity, and that is what needs to be thought of now. BJP at 116 is on a road downwards even though the decline this time was only 21 seats. The time to rethink and reinvent is now. There needs to be a sense of urgency. The BJP now faces a clear [...]

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As we look back at the past six months, here are two key things which stand out: 26/11 and the assembly election results of Delhi and Rajasthan completely turned the momentum away from the BJP. Till then, its twin planks were terrorism and the economy. Both got neutralised in the past six months – or [...]

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