Surveys in the Economist are a must-read. They provide excellent, in-depth perspectives. The latest issue carries a survey on China. Writes the Economist:
China seems set to become more unstable. It will face growing unrest as unemployment mounts. And if growth were to slow significantly, public confidence could collapse, triggering a run on banks that would undermine China’s financial stability.
As long as the leadership can avoid the kind of vicious internal struggles that prompted the 1989 unrest, the party will probably remain in power. But it will be a weakened, inward-looking organisation, vulnerable to crises. If this forecast proves correct, that is bad news for China and could be bad news for countries dealing with it. A weakly led and politically insecure China, roiled by unfulfilled nationalist aspirations, might prove an unpredictable actor on the world stage.
What happens in China is going to be important to all of us. I was telling a friend recently that when we were in school, we’d have the option of learning French or German as the third language. In years to come, don’t be surprised to expect Chinese added. It is after all the biggest market of them all.
I had visited Shanghai for a couple days in early March. Had written my impressions as part of a Tech Talk series.