IBM Linux Portal has an interview with Stacey Quandt of Quandt Analytics, who is “an industry analyst and my focus is Linux and open source software. I identify market trends, and provide advice to end users considering Linux, or whove already deployed it, and to give strategic advice to IT vendors.” Excerpts from the interview:
Large data warehouses running on Linux are inevitable. Collaboration between database vendors and distributions such as Oracle and Red Hat has resulted in improvements in Asynchronous I/O and the 2.6 kernel has better block I/O performance, which is important for data intensive workloads. Increasing data volumes and open source innovation will lead to very large data warehouses running on Linux based SGI Altix, HP Integrity and IBM pSeries systems in the near future.
The debate will continue on open source versus closed source security. However, the trend for the foreseeable future is that more security features will be added at the operating system level. We will see new thresholds being reached on Linux assurance and an industry shift toward the benefits of an open source operating system.
Within the next three years I believe Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system based on new server shipments.
Another milestone to watch for is when Linux gains enough momentum on the desktop to pull in more ISVs. Theres the potential for a lot of innovation that could take place in user space applications on Linux. The desktop is Microsofts last stronghold in the market. So theres a lot of potential for Linux to become a much stronger play there.
I think the milestone to look for is when Linux takes 10% of the market. Its all about when corporate IT says that they will use Linux as their primary desktop operating system. This doesnt mean that users have to give up on Windows applications, but I think we will see a decline in the use of the Windows operating system on the desktop.
A number of companies are doing pilots right now, but I think the timeframe is more like the next two years. In that time well see tremendous growth in the Linux desktop. “Tremendous” means that were going to see it move from being a fringe market to something that ISVs and hardware vendors are porting to and supporting.