Media Futures

Seth Goldstein writes about his new venture built around attention:

The emergence of pay-for-performance advertising online has effectively transferred the risk away from the medium. With PPC, Internet media no longer has to convince advertisers to trust its ability to perform as effectively as other media (Cable, TV, Radio, Print). The quality of the commercial transaction is self-evident to the online advertiser, who now inherits all the risk from the publishers.

Just to be clear, the fact that the risk now resides with the advertiser and not the publisher does not a pure market make. Advertisers are companies in the business of selling things to consumers and other companies. Their business is not buying advertising space. And so this remains the final obstacle to a liquid, efficient Media Futures market; namely that advertisers and their agencies continue to look for customers online when in fact they have no pure business doing so.

So if advertisers dont advertise online, how will the market survive, much less prosper? In the same way that the mortgage security market transferred credit risk away from the balance sheet of operators and into the portfolios of professional investors, a media futures market will enable non-advertisers (aka speculators) to take on the risk from the balance sheets of publishers. Publishers will be happy to hedge out their inventory, limit earnings volatility, and focus entirely on creating value-added programming; rather than spending their time speculating whether CPMs are going up or down.

Similarly, companies (ie the buy-side) can concentrate entirely on developing better products and service. Their marketing groups can focus on creating and communicating their brand images, while their sales organizations can simply specify the kinds of customers they are looking for and the prices they are willing to pay; the Media Futures market will take care of the rest.

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Rajesh Jain

An Entrepreneur based in Mumbai, India.