WSJ has a story quoting the Nokia CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo:
He said a large and expanding proportion of China’s total mobile-phone sales are going to existing users who are buying new — and usually more expensive — phones to replace their old ones. Nokia estimates the replacement-phone share of the total market will be about 55% this year and will rise to 80% by 2010.
“In China, the mobile phone is very much a substitute for a PC, meaning that people get their first Internet experience via mobile phones instead of PCs,” he said. “I think we can take value from the PC market in this domain — maybe easier than in the markets that are dominated by traditional PCs.”