Venture Intelligence Blog has a post by Deepak Srinath:
There is no big m-payment success story anywhere in the world today, barring maybe Japan. Having said that, India probably has the best chance of producing an m-payment success story. Market factors for an alternative payment mechanism to cash are clearly evident high mobile penetration even in tier-2 and 3 cities, relatively low credit card penetration (98% of transactions in India are cash and cheque), a relatively low internet user base and rising middle class consumption and disposable income.
The biggest challenge will remain consumer adoption. The market is large enough to support 3-4 m-payment solution providers with different solutions that cater to different consumer segments. Moreover, competition is essential to create consumer and merchant adoption on a mass scale. Several m-payment solutions are likely to emerge in the next few years in India, as the market evolves and lessons are learnt. From a VC investment perspective, a solution that effectively addresses the hygiene factor of m-payment and then goes that extra mile, and a management team that has strong networks with the banking community are certainly worth taking a closer look at.
I am an investor in mchek, one of the three mobile payments companies discussed.