Bill Bishop predicts:
1. Tencent becomes the largest Chinese Internet company by market capitalization.
2. At least one of Shanda, Netease, The9, Baidu or Sohu sees its stock trade below its IPO price in 2006.
3. Shanda decides it can use its cash better elsewhere and places out its 19.5% stake in Sina, possibly to a large Chinese telecom company. Sina is after all the second largest news provider in China after CCTV, and I believe the government would prefer to have some amount of ownership concentration in the hands of another friendly shareholder.
4. The Alibaba show hits some bumps. It is easier to grow revenue from $0-60M than it is to go from $60M to $250M, and at some point the CEOs showmanship may piss off the wrong person in China.
5. Neteases game business will slip, as the spread of free games hits their core titles and commercial operation of their 3D game is delayed at least into Q4.